The recent tensions between India and Pakistan has raised concerns about the potential for naval escalation between the two nations. Indian Minister of Defence Rajnath Singh’s remarks on May 30, suggesting that the Indian Navy had not been called upon during the recent hostilities with Pakistan, have been seen as a veiled threat.
Singh stated that Pakistan was fortunate the Indian Navy had not been involved, adding that “despite remaining silent, the Indian Navy succeeded in tying down the Pakistani Army. Just imagine what will happen when someone who can keep a country’s army locked in a bottle, even by remaining silent, speaks up?”
The Pakistan Navy responded to Singh’s remarks with a pointed message, announcing a two-day exercise focused on countering sub-conventional and asymmetric threats across all major ports and harbours of Pakistan. This symbolic show of strength highlights the growing part that maritime forces could play in the next chapter of the conflict between India and Pakistan.
The Indian and Pakistani navies have a history of engagement, dating back to the 1965 war over Kashmir. Pakistan’s naval operation against the Indian naval base of Dwarka in Gujarat was a significant event, with Pakistan’s ships firing around 350 rounds and targeting radar installations. However, the operation was deemed more symbolic than strategically meaningful.
In the 1971 war, the Indian Navy played a pivotal role in India’s victory, launching operations Trident and Python, which dealt major blows to Pakistan’s Navy. The Indian Navy’s ability to project power and conduct missions across long distances has grown significantly since then.
Analysts say that Singh’s remarks and Pakistan’s naval drills highlight the growing importance of maritime forces in the conflict between India and Pakistan. “If Pakistan does any unholy act this time, it is possible that the opening will be done by our navy,” Singh said during his speech on May 30. Uday Bhaskar, a former commodore in the Indian Navy, agreed that future conflicts could see naval escalation, stating that “if another military conflict escalates, the probability of navies being actively involved is high”.
The potential for naval engagement between India and Pakistan carries significant risks, including the possibility of escalation control disappearing and the risk of inadvertent nuclear escalation. Bashir Ali Abbas, a New Delhi-based maritime affairs expert, noted that any ship-on-ship or ship-on-land engagement would imply that India and Pakistan are at war, carrying significant risks of escalation.
As tensions between India and Pakistan continue to simmer, the role of their navies in future conflicts remains a concern. With both nations possessing significant naval capabilities, the potential for naval engagement and escalation is a worrying prospect.