Russian President Vladimir Putin has promised to make Ukraine pay for its daring drone attack on Russian airbases, but analysts say he’s facing significant constraints in responding. The attack, codenamed “Spiderweb,” was 18 months in the making and destroyed at least 12 Russian bombers, dealing a significant blow to Ukraine’s adversary.
Putin’s conversation with US President Donald Trump, where he said the Kremlin would “have to respond” to the attack, raised expectations of a massive retaliation. However, Russia’s response so far has been a massive drone and missile strike on Kyiv and across Ukraine, which, although punishing, was not qualitatively different from what Ukraine has experienced over the past three years of war.
According to Kateryna Stepanenko, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, Putin is trying to downplay the attack and avoid admitting that Ukraine inflicted a serious blow. “Putin is trying to make this go away and hide this failure yet again,” she said, adding that a high-profile response “would contradict the Kremlin’s strategic objective of making it all go away and sweeping this under the rug”.
Analysts point to two main constraints on Russia’s response: political and material. Politically, mounting a large-scale response would be akin to admitting Ukraine’s success, which the Kremlin wants to avoid. Materially, Russia is already using a high volume of drones and missiles in its near-daily strikes on Ukraine, making it difficult to escalate further.
As William Alberque, a former NATO arms control official, asked, “How would you know if Russia was actually retaliating? What would be more brutal than them destroying apartment flats or attacking shopping malls? What would escalation look like?”
Some Russian Telegram bloggers have called for extreme measures, including nuclear strikes or using the Oreshnik ballistic missile. However, Mark Galeotti, a leading Russia analyst, notes that the Oreshnik has limited uses and isn’t accurate enough for key targets. “The Oreshnik is really geared for a particular kind of target. It’s not that accurate… and it’s not a bunker-buster,” he said.
While Ukraine may have the initiative in terms of headlines and spectacle, Russia still has the upper hand on the battlefield, with troops opening new fronts in Ukraine’s northern Sumy region and advancing into the central Ukrainian region of Dnipropetrovsk. The question remains whether Putin is willing to accept damage on the home front for his slow attrition grind forward.
As Galeotti said, “From a political perspective… it’s the Ukrainians who demonstrate that they are the nimble, imaginative, effective ones, and the Russians are just thuggish brutes who continue to grind along”. With Ukraine continuing to launch operations, including another attempt to blow up the bridge connecting Russia to Crimea, Putin may face increasing pressure to deliver a response that differs in kind, not just degree.