Crude oil prices experienced a notable rebound at the start of this week, ending a three-week losing streak as optimism surrounding renewed China-US trade talks and a favorable U.S. jobs report sparked renewed confidence in the global oil market.
Over the weekend, Brent crude futures rose by $1.13, or 1.73%, to settle at $66.47 per barrel. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at $64.58 per barrel, gaining $1.21, or 1.91%. This marked the first weekly gain for both benchmarks in three weeks, with Brent climbing 2.75% and WTI surging nearly 5% ahead of Monday’s trading.
Market analysts credited the recovery to a combination of factors, most notably the encouraging U.S. Labor Department employment data released last week. The report showed a steady unemployment rate of 4.2% and the addition of 139,000 new jobs, slightly below last year’s monthly average of 160,000 but sufficient to signal economic stability without overheating.
Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, described the jobs data as a “Goldilocks report” — balanced enough to increase the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, a move expected to stimulate economic growth and boost oil demand.
Adding to the positive sentiment, trade negotiations between the U.S. and China resumed after a brief hiatus. According to China’s official Xinhua news agency, the latest talks were held at Washington’s request, with U.S. President Donald Trump describing the call with Chinese President Xi Jinping as a “very positive conclusion.” This progress raised hopes for easing trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies, which had previously threatened global growth prospects and oil demand.
While trade talks and economic data bolstered demand expectations, supply-side dynamics also played a crucial role in stabilizing oil prices. On Saturday, OPEC+ members, including Russia, agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, a decision that was carefully balanced to prevent oversupply. Notably, Saudi Arabia’s proposal for a larger output hike was rejected, signaling a cautious approach to managing global oil supply and prices.
HSBC analysts noted that the oil market appeared “balanced” through the second and third quarters of 2025, with rising demand during the summer months offsetting incremental supply increases from OPEC+. This equilibrium is vital for maintaining price stability amid ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
Further supporting price resilience, the latest U.S. oil and gas rig count fell by four to 559, marking the lowest level since November 2021. Baker Hughes data showed a decrease in oil rigs but a slight increase in gas rigs, highlighting evolving production dynamics in the U.S. energy sector.
Analysts at BMI, a Fitch affiliate, also pointed to geopolitical risks as potential upside factors for crude prices. Possible increased U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports and threats of Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure could further tighten supply and add bullish pressure to the market.
The rebound in crude oil prices underscores how global energy markets remain highly sensitive to macroeconomic signals and geopolitical developments. As trade negotiations progress and central banks weigh monetary policy decisions, oil prices are expected to navigate these influences cautiously.
For Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, these developments are significant. A stable or rising crude price environment can positively impact government revenues, foreign exchange earnings, and the country’s broader economic outlook. However, the industry must also contend with internal challenges such as production disruptions and infrastructure needs to fully capitalize on global market gains.
Nigeria recently marked a milestone with the first crude oil export from the Otakikpo onshore terminal, signaling efforts to diversify production sources.
Despite positive trends, Nigeria’s overall crude oil production currently stands at about 93% of its OPEC quota, reflecting ongoing operational challenges.
Security incidents, such as explosions impacting the Trans Niger Pipeline (TNP), continue to pose risks to stable output.
As global oil markets watch trade talks closely and monitor OPEC+ strategies, the delicate balance between supply and demand will remain a key focus for investors, producers, and consumers alike.