Vietnam has abolished its longstanding two-child policy, allowing couples to have as many children as they choose. The decision aims to reverse the country’s declining birthrate and mitigate the pressure from an ageing society. Minister of Health Dao Hong Lan warned that a shrinking population “threatens Vietnam’s sustainable economic and social development, as well as its national security and defence in the long term.”
Declining Birthrate and Its Consequences
Vietnam’s birthrate has been declining, reaching a record low of 1.91 children per woman in 2024, below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. The decline is most pronounced in urban areas like Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi, where the cost of living is high. The country’s working-age population is expected to peak around 2040, and Vietnam aims to avoid the trap of “getting old before it gets rich.”
Regional Disparities and Sex Ratio Imbalance
The declining birthrate is accompanied by significant regional disparities and a sex ratio imbalance. Vietnam’s sex ratio at birth is 111 boys to every 100 girls, with the disparity most pronounced in North Vietnam’s Red River Delta and the Northern Midlands and Mountains. The Health Ministry has proposed tripling the fine for “foetal gender selection” to about $3,800 to curb sex-selective abortions.
Rationale Behind the Two-Child Policy
The two-child policy was introduced in 1988 to ensure Vietnam had adequate resources as it transitioned from a planned to a market economy. At the time, Vietnam was still recovering from the effects of decades of war. The policy was most strictly enforced for members of the Communist Party, and families with more than two children could lose government subsidies and assistance.
Impact of the Policy Change
The removal of the two-child policy is expected to have significant implications for Vietnam’s demographics and economy. With a declining birthrate and an ageing population, Vietnam faces challenges in maintaining a sustainable workforce and supporting its elderly population. The policy change aims to encourage couples to have more children and mitigate the impact of an ageing society.