The upcoming peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul are unlikely to yield a breakthrough, especially after Ukraine’s recent large-scale drone strikes on strategic Russian bases. The strikes, which targeted Russian aircraft thousands of miles from the Ukrainian border, have bolstered Ukraine’s position, making it less likely for the Kremlin to compromise.
Russian officials have been clear about their hardline terms, including sovereignty over annexed territories, demilitarization of Ukraine, and guarantees for Russian-speakers. President Volodymyr Zelensky has outlined Ukraine’s positions, including an unconditional ceasefire and the return of Ukrainian children taken to Russia. However, Russian demands for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from territory it claims remain unpalatable.
The drone strikes have exposed Russia’s vulnerability and could shift the war’s narrative. As US President Donald Trump’s credibility is tied to the outcome, he may no longer have the luxury of walking away from the conflict. Trump’s insistence on ending the Ukraine conflict and his personal interventions with the Ukrainian and Russian leaders have linked the US to the outcome of the Peace talk and war.
Despite the challenges, the outcome of the Istanbul talks is being closely watched for any hints of flexibility. Trump’s options include imposing tough new sanctions or adjusting US military aid to increase the costs of fighting. However, it remains uncertain whether these measures would be decisive. As Matthew Chance, Chief Global Affairs Correspondent, notes, “events on the battlefield and at the negotiating table in Istanbul are being watched so closely.”
The situation on the ground continues to escalate, with Russia launching its largest drone attack on Ukraine since the beginning of the war and a missile strike killing at least 12 people and wounding more than 60 at a Ukrainian military training site. With neither side showing signs of compromise, the prospects for a peaceful resolution remain uncertain.