Ukraine and Russia Agree to Largest Prisoner Swap

Russian and Ukrainian delegations have completed a meeting in Istanbul, agreeing to an “all-for-all” prisoner swap and the return of the bodies of about 6,000 soldiers. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Russia and Ukraine would exchange 1,000 prisoners each, with the possibility of swapping an additional 200 prisoners of war. The Ukrainian delegation had previously accused Moscow of rejecting the idea of an unconditional ceasefire, and Kyiv has proposed a meeting by the end of June to make progress.

According to Zelenskyy, Ukrainian negotiators provided their Russian counterparts with a list of nearly 400 children it wants Russia to return home to Ukraine. However, the Russian delegation agreed to work on returning only 10 of them. Zelenskyy also stated that Ukraine’s recent attack on Russia, code-named “Operation Spider’s Web,” had helped restore confidence among allies that Ukraine can continue waging the war against Russia’s invasion.

Terms of the Russian Memorandum

More details have emerged from the ceasefire memorandum given to the Ukrainian delegation by Russia. The memorandum contains two parts: the “main parameters of the final settlement” and a “package proposal.” The main parameters call for Ukraine to recognize the territories claimed by Russia as Russian, maintain neutrality, reduce the number of its soldiers, and refuse to demand reparations. Moscow also demands the lifting of all sanctions. The package proposal includes demands such as kick-starting Ukrainian demobilization, ceasing the supplies of foreign weapons, lifting martial law, and holding presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine.

International Reactions and Analysis

The United Kingdom’s strategic defence review highlights Russia’s willingness to use force to achieve its goals and disrupt the international order. The report notes that while the war in Ukraine has temporarily degraded Russian conventional land forces, it continues to pose an enduring threat in areas such as space, cyberspace, and chemical and biological weapons. Oleksiy Gancharenko, a Ukrainian MP, believes that harsh US sanctions are the only way to stop Russia, stating, “I think Russia still wants to continue the war, and the only thing which can stop them right now is very harsh sanctions from the United States.”

Path Forward on Ceasefire Remains Unclear

The path forward on a ceasefire remains unclear after today’s meeting, with Russia refusing to accept a 30-day comprehensive unconditional ceasefire. Instead, it suggested a much shorter three-day ceasefire to facilitate the exchange of bodies of soldiers. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan believes the next logical step would be a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, potentially with US President Donald Trump in attendance. However, Moscow has been reluctant to accept such proposals, citing the need for more groundwork.