The absence of China’s Defence Minister Dong Jun from the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore has raised eyebrows, coming at a time of heightened tensions between China and the United States(US). Instead of Dong, Beijing sent a delegation of lower-ranking representatives to the Asia’s premier security forum. This marks the first time since 2019 that China has not dispatched its defence minister to the high-level dialogue on regional defence, except when the event was cancelled in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth seized the opportunity to warn of the military threat posed by China, telling the defence forum that Beijing is credibly preparing to potentially use military force to alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. “It has to be clear to all that Beijing is credibly preparing to potentially use military force to alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific,” Hegseth said. Pointing to China’s regular military drills around Taiwan and increasingly frequent skirmishes in the South China Sea, Hegseth added, “There’s no reason to sugar-coat it. The threat China poses is real, and it could be imminent.”
Hegseth also urged Asian nations to boost their defence spending, citing Germany’s pledge to spend 5 percent of its GDP on defence. “It doesn’t make sense for countries in Europe to do that while key allies in Asia spend less on defence in the face of an even more formidable threat,” he said. Despite strained ties in recent months, Hegseth reassured Asian allies that Washington is committed to Asia Pacific security, saying, “America is proud to be back in the Indo-Pacific, and we’re here to stay.”
However, some analysts have downplayed the severity of Hegseth’s warnings about China. “Short of a very few countries, not many in this part of the world see China as an imminent threat and would up their [defence] spending,” said Dylan Loh, assistant professor at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University.
Loh added that China’s absence might be due to the sensitive nature of US-China relations, saying, “Any sort of faux pas or comments that may go off script can be picked up and picked apart or misconstrued… So the question is why take the risk when US-China relations are at a very delicate point at this moment.”
Beijing has remained tight-lipped about Dong’s absence, with Chinese military spokesperson Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang stating that communication channels are still open between defence officials in Washington and Beijing. “China places great importance on US-China military ties, and is open to communication at different levels,” Zhang said.
Speculation surrounding Dong’s absence includes the possibility of domestic turmoil within China’s senior military, with some analysts suggesting that the PLA might not want to send a senior representative to the summit.