Nigeria has officially lost its long-standing title as Africa’s largest importer of refined petroleum products to South Africa, marking a historic shift in the continent’s energy trade landscape, according to a new report released by CITAC, an energy consultancy firm.
The development comes as the Dangote Petrochemical Refinery, located near Lagos, ramps up operations, reshaping not only Nigeria’s domestic energy consumption but also altering trade flows across sub-Saharan Africa. The 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) refinery—currently the world’s largest single-train facility—began full-scale production in January 2024 and is rapidly displacing international fuel suppliers.
According to CITAC’s data for the first quarter of 2025, Nigeria imported 3.1 million metric tonnes of refined fuel, a notable decline compared to South Africa’s 4.2 million tonnes over the same period. This marks the first time Nigeria has been dethroned from the top spot in decades.
“Nigerian imports are dropping as a result of the continued operation of Dangote,” said Elitsa Georgieva, Executive Director at CITAC. “Since the beginning of this year, South African imports have consistently been the highest in sub-Saharan Africa.”
The report underscores the transformative impact of the Dangote refinery on the African oil and gas landscape. Crude throughput across sub-Saharan African refineries rose by a staggering 77.8% in 2024—from 382,500 bpd in 2023 to 680,100 bpd—driven largely by the Dangote plant’s output.
For years, Nigeria—a leading crude oil producer—faced the paradox of exporting raw crude while heavily relying on fuel imports to meet local demand. The Dangote refinery’s output is finally reversing this trend. CITAC projects that Nigeria’s total fuel imports for 2025 will drop to 6.4 million tonnes, less than half of South Africa’s projected 15.5 million tonnes.
“The Nigerian market has undergone major product flow changes since mid-2023,” the report noted. “The start-up of the Dangote refinery has displaced the bulk of international clean products imports in West Africa.”
Presently operating at 550,000 bpd, the Dangote refinery is already meeting a significant share of Nigeria’s fuel demand and is positioned to supply regional markets. The implications are far-reaching, including potential relief for Nigeria’s forex reserves, a stronger naira, and a reduced burden on government fuel subsidies.
While Nigeria is experiencing a refining resurgence, South Africa is facing the opposite. The nation’s refining capacity has been hit by a string of operational setbacks—ranging from industrial accidents to ageing infrastructure and underinvestment.
The idling of Sapref, South Africa’s largest refinery and a joint venture between Shell and BP, in 2022 further exacerbated the situation. Although the government acquired the plant in 2023 to revive operations, no definitive relaunch date has been announced.
State-owned logistics firm Transnet reports that over 60% of South Africa’s fuel consumption is now met through imports. “South Africa’s infrastructure is mature, but its refining shortfall is now attracting foreign traders who can bridge the gap,” said an energy executive familiar with the situation.
The rise of the Dangote refinery is not just impacting national economies; it is also shaking up global trading dynamics. Swiss oil trading firm Mocoh, which once dominated Nigeria’s petrol import business through deals with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), has had to restructure its strategy.
“In early 2025, we saw a paradigm shift,” said Mocoh CEO Olivier Lassagne in an interview with Platts. “We lost most of our petrol trade with NNPC, but that’s pushed us to grow beyond our traditional niche.”
Mocoh is now pivoting toward regional markets, collaborating with Dangote to export surplus fuel to neighbouring countries like Benin, Cameroon, and Burkina Faso. However, competition is intensifying, with trading giants such as Vitol, BP, and Trafigura securing major offtake agreements. Atmin, backed by Afreximbank, is also entering the fray to expand intra-African supply chains.
“Dangote values flexibility and market pricing. They aren’t tying themselves down with exclusive partners,” Lassagne added.
The shift in Africa’s fuel import rankings is more than a statistical anomaly—it is a reflection of changing fortunes in the region’s refining capabilities. For Nigeria, it signals a long-overdue energy independence and economic opportunity. For South Africa, it represents a growing reliance on international suppliers amid domestic challenges.
With the Dangote refinery at the centre of this evolution, Africa’s energy market is entering a new phase—one where local refining capacity could dictate the pace and pattern of regional trade.