President Bola Ahmed Tinubu clocks two years in office on May 29, 2025, the spotlight falls squarely on the administration’s promise to secure Nigeria’s food future through aggressive agricultural reforms. With the establishment of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security under Minister Abubakar Kyari, Tinubu’s government has made noteworthy strides. But glaring systemic flaws, insecurity, and economic policy backlash threaten to derail progress
Central to the Tinubu administration’s “Renewed Hope Agenda,” agriculture was elevated as a top-tier policy priority meant to reduce oil dependence, create jobs, and ensure national food sufficiency. In less than two years, the Ministry claims to have injected over ₦309 billion into the economy through diverse interventions.
Among the flagship projects is the Dry Season Farming Initiative, which has expanded to 500,000 hectares, including 118,000 hectares of wheat cultivated across 15 states. This has helped extend farming cycles beyond the traditional rainy season and supported over 60,000 jobs, predominantly in rural communities.
To cut farmers’ production costs, over 2.15 million bags of fertiliser were distributed nationwide in partnership with the Central Bank of Nigeria. Livestock health also received attention, with 14 million doses of vaccines administered and several modern veterinary clinics established.
The Ministry has pursued climate-smart agriculture with an emphasis on drought-resistant seeds and high-yield varieties. Collaborations with academic and international institutions have been fostered to bridge the gap between research and practice, especially on seed development and soil conservation techniques.
Infrastructure development has not been left behind. Over 77 kilometres of asphalt roads and 130 kilometres of rural earth roads have been constructed to facilitate produce movement. In addition, farming communities have benefited from solar-powered boreholes and streetlights.
Efforts to train the next generation of farmers are underway, with over 20,000 smallholders—many of them women and youth—trained in agribusiness, financial literacy, and productivity-enhancing techniques.
The ministry also inaugurated the Agricultural Sector Working Group, bringing together government and private actors to ensure policy synergy across national food security strategies.
Despite these commendable actions, the sector remains bogged down by complex, deep-rooted issues.
Top among them is food inflation. With year-on-year rates hovering above 40%, millions of Nigerians are locked out of basic nutrition. This inflation is compounded by a trifecta of poor infrastructure, insecurity, and flawed subsidy policies.
Security remains the sector’s Achilles’ heel. In several states, farming has become a life-threatening activity due to banditry, kidnapping, and communal clashes. Vast farmlands lie fallow, either inaccessible or abandoned. The smuggling of food items across borders exacerbates local shortages and spikes prices.
Nigeria also battles massive post-harvest losses—estimated at 40% annually—due to inadequate storage, transportation challenges, and the absence of preservation technology. This results in the loss of billions of naira in revenue and significant food wastage.
A more insidious issue is corruption within the farmers’ database, which Minister Kyari himself admitted. The manipulation of this vital record has obstructed equitable distribution of subsidies and interventions, with genuine farmers often left out while politically connected actors benefit.
Climate change is yet another looming threat. Erratic rainfall, droughts, and unseasonal flooding continue to wreak havoc on planting cycles and yields. Many farmers now report confusion about when to plant or harvest—a reality that undermines production and supply chain planning.
Experts and stakeholders offer a mixed appraisal of Tinubu’s performance in the agricultural sector.
Peter Dama, Chairman of the Competitive African Rice Forum (Nigeria Chapter), lauded the government for creating the National Agricultural Fund and initiating tractorisation and fertiliser distribution, though he cautioned that implementation has been sluggish.
He expressed optimism about ongoing Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones, which, if fully actualised, could boost value chains and foster regional agricultural specialisation.
Dama, however, was unflinching in his critique of key economic decisions, including the removal of petrol subsidies, which he said had disastrous effects on food logistics and irrigation.
“The fuel subsidy removal is a massive blow. It hit hardest during dry season farming when irrigation is vital,” Dama noted. “Transport costs ballooned, squeezing margins for already struggling farmers.”
Dama also criticised the recent 150-day food import duty waiver, describing it as counterproductive. “It undermines local farmers and erodes food sovereignty. You’re spending scarce forex to import what we can grow.”
Electricity tariff hikes have worsened the plight of agro-processors. “You can’t process crops without power. Now, with the new Band A-C structure, processors are bleeding,” Dama said.
He emphasised that while the government has policy frameworks in place, real impact will only come from implementation: “We don’t need more announcements. We need action.”
Abubakar Kassim, President of the Fertiliser Producers and Suppliers Association of Nigeria, echoed Dama’s concerns about policy fallout. While he praised the government for declaring a food security emergency, he stressed that execution remains inconsistent.
“The removal of petrol subsidies made irrigation unaffordable,” Kassim explained. “And just as farmers were preparing for dry season farming, we were hit with soaring input and transport costs.”
He, however, credited the administration for quickly moving to secure fertiliser supplies and initiating key equipment partnerships. “That demonstrated political will, which we hadn’t seen in a while,” he added.
President Tinubu’s food security vision is ambitious, but experts argue it must transition from paper to practice. The administration has taken key steps—investment in dry season farming, seed innovation, infrastructure development—but insecurity, inflation, subsidy withdrawal, and policy inconsistency continue to undermine these gains.
As Nigeria stares down a worsening food crisis, the path forward requires more than good intentions. What’s needed now is robust execution, transparent governance, and sustained support for grassroots farmers.
In the words of an industry insider: “We’ve seen the blueprint. Now we need to see the bulldozers.”