A recent flurry of diplomatic activities has left Russia appearing confident, while the prospect of peace in Ukraine seems no closer. Despite a two-hour telephone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, Russia has still not agreed to an unconditional comprehensive ceasefire. Moscow continues to push for more territory, refusing to return any of the Ukrainian land it has seized, occupied, and claims to have annexed, a situation experts sees as impediments to peace talks in Ukraine
Putin proposed direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul, which was met with skepticism in Ukraine and Europe. The talks took place on May 16, but Russia sent a low-level delegation that rejected the idea of a long-term ceasefire. According to Trump, “Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War.” However, Moscow is already casting doubt on whether it would sign any future peace treaty with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, “You’re putting the cart before the horse. First, we need to have a deal. When it’s agreed, then we will decide. But, as President Putin has said many times, President Zelensky does not have legitimacy… Probably the best option would be new elections…” The Russian media has concluded that Moscow has strengthened its hand after two weeks of diplomacy, with the Izvestia newspaper declaring, “Russia has won the latest round of global poker.”
The Kremlin’s confidence is fueled by its belief that it holds the initiative on the battlefield in Ukraine. Trump appears reluctant to ratchet up the pressure on the Kremlin, instead signaling a desire to reboot US-Russia relations. Putin’s foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov noted that Trump “spoke rather emotionally about the prospects for [bilateral] relations. Trump sees Russia as one of America’s most important partners in trade and economic matters.”
The US Senate has threatened tough new sanctions against Russia if Moscow doesn’t get serious about diplomacy. However, the Kremlin seems confident it can continue to deflect or sidestep pressure to make compromises and concessions regarding its war on Ukraine. As the situation stands, the fighting in Ukraine continues, with little sign of a peaceful resolution in the near future.