Voters in Poland are casting their ballots to elect the next president in a closely contested election between liberal mayor of Warsaw Rafal Trzaskowski and conservative historian Karol Nawrocki. The election is expected to be a close contest, with neither candidate likely to reach the required 50% threshold for victory, making a run-off on June 1 probable.
The campaign has largely revolved around foreign policy, with security fears looming large due to Poland’s proximity to war-torn Ukraine and concerns about the United States’ commitment to European security under President Donald Trump. Trzaskowski has pledged to strengthen Poland’s relations with NATO and the EU, saying, “I would definitely strengthen relations with our partners… within NATO and the EU.”
Social Issues Take Center Stage
Social issues have also been a major theme on the campaign trail, with Nawrocki framing himself as a guardian of conservative values and Trzaskowski drawing support from liberal voters for his pledges to back abortion and LGBTQ+ rights. Malgorzata Mikoszewska, a 41-year-old tourism agency employee, expressed her support for Trzaskowski’s liberal stance on social issues, saying, “Above all, I hope for the liberalisation of the law on abortion and sexual minorities.”
Nawrocki’s campaign received a boost when he met with Trump in the Oval Office this month, but it was later marred by allegations that he bought an apartment in Gdansk from an elderly man in return for a promise to provide lifelong care for the man, which was not delivered. Nawrocki denied the allegations.
Foreign Interference and Potential Consequences
Polish authorities have reported attempts at foreign interference during the campaign, including denial-of-service attacks targeting the websites of parties in Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s ruling coalition. Political scientist Anna Materska-Sosnowska warned that Nawrocki’s victory could lead to a return of populists with renewed force at the next general election, saying, “With Nawrocki as president, the government would be paralysed, and that could eventually lead to the fall of the ruling coalition.”
The new president will replace Andrzej Duda, who has served two terms and is ineligible to stand again. The outcome of the election will determine whether voters endorse the pro-European path set by Prime Minister Tusk or favour a return to the nationalist vision of Law and Justice, which ran the country from 2015 to 2023.