Fuel importation into Nigeria and the broader West African region has spiked significantly, following a reduction in output from the Dangote PetroleuDangote: Major Marketers, Not NNPC Board, Frustrating My Refinerym Refinery due to operational maintenance, according to fresh data released by S&P Global. The development has forced the region to increase reliance on European gasoline supplies, threatening Nigeria’s quest for refined fuel self-sufficiency.
The Dangote Refinery’, Africa’s largest single-train refining complex, reportedly scaled back operations after initiating a four-week maintenance exercise to fix what insiders have described as “design issues.” A company executive, speaking to S&P Global Commodity Insights on May 13, disclosed that key refining units — including the Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracker (RFCC), alkylation, and polypropylene units — were being ramped back up.
Despite earlier denials from the Dangote Group about any shutdown, S&P’s data shows gasoline imports to Nigeria and Togo rose sharply — from around 200,000 barrels per day (b/d) in January to over 300,000 b/d by March. In April, imports hovered around 250,000 b/d, nearly matching Nigeria’s estimated national gasoline demand of 300,000 b/d.
The refinery, inaugurated in 2023 and celebrated as a game-changer for Nigeria’s energy sector, was expected to drastically cut the country’s dependence on imported fuel. However, the recent operational disruptions have led to reduced local supply, forcing traders and marketers to pivot back to Europe for gasoline imports.
With the RFCC unit offline, the refinery was reportedly relying solely on its 120,000 b/d reformer to meet domestic demand. Industry sources cited restricted access to gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) during April, though the situation appeared to improve by mid-May.
While the crude distillation unit was said to be operating at 550,000 b/d — around 85% of its nameplate capacity — actual gasoline output remained below expectations. Prior to the maintenance-induced outage, the RFCC had only reached 70% of its potential, highlighting the teething challenges still facing the multibillion-dollar facility.
According to S&P, the temporary reduction in Dangote’s gasoline supply had ripple effects on global markets. The April outage was directly linked to a spike in Eurobob gasoline prices, as 100,000 b/d of anticipated supply was suddenly unavailable.
S&P forecasts that any further maintenance — including a potential June turnaround — could once again bolster global gasoline crack spreads by as much as $3 per barrel, underlining the refinery’s growing influence on international pricing benchmarks.
Another trend highlighted in the report is the shift in import logistics, with Togo’s Lome port becoming a key entry point for fuel bound for Nigeria. Large cargoes are now offloaded offshore and redistributed via smaller vessels. Market players say this break-bulk strategy helps reduce tax liabilities and retain US dollar-denominated transactions — a workaround to Nigeria’s push for naira-based deals.
Although Dangote Refinery officials remain optimistic about scaling to full capacity — a projected 650,000 b/d — repeated outages and design revisions have delayed that ambition. Despite these setbacks, the facility has maintained steady exports of gasoil, jet fuel, and residual fuel, even as gasoline output lagged.
Experts warn that Nigeria’s fuel import dependency may persist longer than anticipated unless the refinery achieves operational stability. The government’s continued forex restrictions and refining bottlenecks also compound uncertainties for marketers and consumers alike.
As Nigerians brace for another potential wave of fuel scarcity and import-induced price volatility, energy analysts emphasize the need for clear communication from stakeholders and accelerated refinery optimization.