The looming possibility of a fuel import ban in Nigeria has reignited tensions between the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and key petroleum marketers, sparking fears that petrol prices could skyrocket to N1,500 per litre if importation is halted.
This warning came from the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), which urged President Bola Tinubu to reconsider any policy that would lead to an outright ban on fuel imports. The National Publicity Secretary of IPMAN, Chinedu Ukadike, warned that such a move could create a monopolistic market where local refiners dictate pump prices without competition.
Ukadike argued that the country’s fuel needs cannot yet be met by domestic production alone, noting that even modular refineries producing diesel are selling at higher prices than imported equivalents. “If we ban imports now, local refiners like Dangote may raise petrol prices to as high as N1,500 per litre. This would be disastrous for Nigerians,” he warned.
The Federal Government’s recent push under the ‘Nigeria First’ policy has fueled speculation that a fuel importation ban could be imminent. With Dangote’s 650,000 barrels per day refinery coming online and other modular refineries entering the market, government officials are reportedly considering halting imports to protect domestic production and boost local refining capacity.
However, the Dangote Group has firmly rejected the marketers’ claim. A senior official of the refinery, who requested anonymity, accused marketers of attempting to maintain the status quo of importing “substandard” and “dirty” fuel products. “The suggestion that we will increase petrol price to N1,500 is unfounded and illogical,” the official stated. “Our refinery is built to help Nigerians, not to exploit them.”
Meanwhile, the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) has echoed IPMAN’s concerns. The association’s President, Billy Gillis-Harry, warned that any attempt to restrict fuel importation could destabilize the market and violate the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act, which encourages free and open competition among players.
Gillis-Harry described recent reductions in fuel prices as artificial, stressing the need for multiple sources of energy supply to ensure market stability. “The truth is, Nigeria still requires up to 48 million litres of petrol daily. No single refinery can consistently meet that demand at this point. We cannot allow one source to dominate our fuel supply chain,” he cautioned.
The disagreement is further compounded by an ongoing legal tussle in which the Dangote Refinery, alongside other stakeholders, is challenging the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority in court over regulatory bottlenecks.
As marketers brace for policy shifts, they are calling on the Federal Government to instead focus on incentivizing local refineries through financing, tax waivers, and reduced interest rates. “Rather than banning imports, support local production to meet domestic and export demands,” Ukadike advised.
In contrast, the Centre for Promotion of Private Enterprise, led by Dr. Muda Yusuf, dismissed fears of a monopoly by Dangote. Yusuf emphasized that the responsibility lies with other players in the sector, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), to ensure competition by reviving and operating Nigeria’s four government-owned refineries.
“If local refiners are afraid of a monopoly, they should invest in building and revamping their refineries,” he said. “Competition must be local-to-local, not import-to-local. The government is saying—if we can produce locally, then imports should be secondary.”
On the pricing front, the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) had previously indicated that fuel prices could drop significantly below N700 per litre if global crude prices fall and the naira-for-crude deal gains traction.
As the Tinubu administration balances industrial protection with market stability, stakeholders remain divided on the path forward. While marketers insist on keeping the fuel import window open to prevent price exploitation, Dangote maintains it can meet Nigeria’s energy needs efficiently—without the need for imported fuel.
The nation watches closely as the debate over fuel importation and pricing continues, knowing that the decisions made in the coming months could reshape the entire downstream petroleum sector.