The Philippines is holding a mid-term election that will decide half of the Senate’s seats and thousands of local posts, with significant implications for the country’s politics. The election is also seen as a crucial test for President Ferdinand Marcos and impeached Vice President Sara Duterte, who have been at odds since her impeachment in February.
The rift between Marcos and Duterte has dominated national politics, particularly after Rodrigo Duterte, Sara’s father, was arrested and transferred to the International Criminal Court to face charges over his deadly drug war while he was president. The 12 senators elected will serve as jurors in an impeachment trial tentatively set for July, which could see Sara Duterte permanently barred from public office.
The Stakes for the Dutertes
Cleve Arguelles, president and CEO of WR Numero Research, believes the threat the Dutertes face is existential. “If (Rodrigo) is cut off from power, if Sara is cut off from public office, then it’s not far from imagining that it might also threaten their control of Davao,” he said, referencing the capital of the family’s southern stronghold Mindanao. Arguelles added that removing Sara Duterte from the 2028 presidential equation would be in the interest of more than just Marcos, who is constitutionally limited to one term. “If she is out of the game, then it’s anybody’s ballgame,” he said.
Marcos’s Sliding Popularity
Despite the Dutertes’ woes, Marcos’s popularity has not improved. A survey released last month showed a dramatic dip in his approval rating from nearly 50% to 25% in barely three months. Dennis Coronacion of the University of Santo Tomas’ political science department noted, “There’s a view that the mid-term elections serve as a referendum for the incumbent president.” Jean Franco, assistant chair of the University of the Philippines’ political science department, added, “Since late 2023, his entire administration’s narrative seems to be about Sara Duterte. I think Filipinos are souring on him.”
Election Challenges
The election has been marked by violence, with the Commission on Elections (Comelec) recording 81 acts of “politically related” violence between January 12 and May 7, resulting in 16 deaths. A top Comelec official said the numbers were “very low compared to the past.” Over 160,000 national police have been deployed to secure polling stations and guard checkpoints.
Post-Election Outlook
Alicor Panao, an associate political science professor at the University of the Philippines, believes Marcos’s influence will wane over the next three years, regardless of the election’s outcome. “The truth is, the… political capital of the president decreases in the second half of his term whatever happens… because he cannot promise anything anymore,” he said. “The legislators and local officials will (start preparing) for the next presidential election. That’s the reality of our politics.”
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