The Gaza war has sparked intense debate and condemnation from the international community, with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres labeling Israel’s actions as “intolerable in the eyes of international law”. The conflict has essentially turned Gaza into a “killing field”, according to Guterres, due to Israel’s blockade of essential supplies like food and medicine.
Perspectives from Palestinian Experts
Two Palestinian experts, Yezid Sayigh and Khalil Shikaki, offer insights on the potential outcomes and governance of Gaza post-war.
- Governance: Sayigh believes there’s no stable outcome without an Israeli government willing to agree to a wider framework including the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Shikaki thinks Hamas will remain in control, even after its military infrastructure is destroyed, and will dictate the rules for any external intervention.
- International Involvement: The experts suggest that an international organization like UNRWA will likely handle service delivery, given that 80% of Gazans are refugees. However, reconstruction efforts are unlikely in the short term due to the need for billions of dollars in investment.
- Palestinian Authority’s Role: The return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza is seen as unlikely, with Shikaki noting that Israel prefers to deal with Hamas rather than the PA. Even if the PA were to return, it would require a revival of the two-state solution and Fatah-Hamas reconciliation.
Regional and Global Implications
The conflict’s impact extends beyond Gaza, with concerns about:
- West Bank Escalation: Shikaki warns that the West Bank may not be ready for a significant explosion, but settler violence and land grabs are ongoing, making Palestinians more desperate for change.
- Global Politics: Sayigh notes that the current moment in world history, with rising nationalism and fascism, makes it difficult to turn the conflict into a positive outcome.
- US and European Involvement: The experts question whether Western governments will invest the necessary political capital to change Israeli policy, given their current priorities and alliances.
The situation in Gaza remains dire, with no clear resolution in sight. The perspectives of Palestinian experts and international leaders highlight the complexity and depth of the conflict, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive and sustainable solution.
